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NFL evaluators make picks on Week 5's best games

ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 5. This week's games: Jaguars-Chiefs, Titans-Bills, Packers-Lions, Vikings-Eagles and Cowboys-Texans.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: KC by 3 | Insiders pick: KC (2/3)

The Patriots, Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Chargers, Falcons, Steelers, Vikings, Eagles and Cowboys are the top 10 teams since the start of last season in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric. The Jaguars have a 4-2 record against those teams over that span, including 2-1 on the road. That counts playoff games against Pittsburgh and New England on the road last season.

"The one thing you know you will get with Jacksonville is their great defense," one insider said. "But their game against Tennessee [9-6 defeat at home] showed you do not know 100 percent what you are getting from Blake Bortles. He is managing games better overall and Kansas City is really bad on defense. I don't quite trust it enough to pick Jacksonville on the road."

The Chiefs are among 37 teams since 2001 to allow at least 23 points in each of their first four games. They are the only team among those 37 to post a 4-0 record in the process. The other 36 teams were a combined 34-110.

Jacksonville showed last season it could win a shootout, outlasting the Steelers 45-42 in the divisional playoffs. However, it has a 2-8 record since the start of last season when allowing more than 20 points. The rest of the league has won 28 percent of those games.

"K.C. will continue to score points," another insider predicted. "They have too many answers and Jacksonville cannot keep up scoring points."